1.1 Output and Apparent Consumption: Downward Trends

In 2024, the steel tube industry faced severe insufficient demand from downstream sectors, which became the main driver of the significant decline in output. Three key factors contributed to this situation:

• The real estate industry continued its downward trend: Real estate development investment dropped by 10.6% year-on-year (YoY) in 2024, with residential investment falling by 10.5%, residential construction area decreasing by 13.1%, and new residential start-up area plummeting by 23%.
• Reduced infrastructure projects: At the beginning of 2024, the state suspended infrastructure projects (excluding water, heating, and power supply projects) in 12 provinces with high debt levels.
• Sharp reduction in long-distance pipeline projects of the national pipeline network: This led to a significant shortage of orders for steel tube enterprises, especially for welded steel tube manufacturers.

1.2 Import and Export: Record-High Exports with Price Declines

In 2024, the export volume of China’s steel tubes hit a new high, while imports also increased. However, export prices dropped significantly, creating pressure on enterprise profits.

• Export volume: Total steel tube exports reached 1100.89 million tons, up 9.28% YoY. Seamless steel tube exports rose slightly by 0.71% YoY, while welded steel tube exports surged by 20.18% YoY to a historical high.
• Export product structure: Exports of welded line pipes, square and rectangular pipes, and stainless steel welded pipes (D ≤406.4 mm) increased significantly, while exports of seamless oil well pipes decreased.
• Import volume: Total steel tube imports grew by 21.51% YoY, with seamless steel tube imports up 10.18% and welded steel tube imports up 10.46%.
• Price trends: Average export prices of all steel tube varieties fell sharply. The average export price of seamless steel tubes dropped by 12.95% YoY, and that of welded steel tubes plummeted by 24.30% YoY. For imports, seamless steel tube prices rose slightly by 0.61%, while welded steel tube prices decreased by 2.99%.

1.3 Overall Industry Status: “Three Highs and Three Lows”

In 2024, the steel tube industry generally showed a “three highs and three lows” pattern: low demand, high capacity, high costs, high exports, low prices, and low benefits. The main reasons were:

• Downstream demand was far below expectations: Despite a slight rebound in October, the earlier decline in real estate and infrastructure sectors could not be offset.
• Long-term supply-demand imbalance: Steel tube prices remained at a low level. Although there was a significant rebound in late October, prices continued to decline afterward.
• Sharp drop in export prices: The substantial decline in export prices further squeezed enterprise profit margins.

2.1 Product and Technological Innovation: Breakthroughs in High-End Fields

The industry made significant progress in product R&D and technological innovation, especially in deep-earth exploration, deep-sea engineering, new energy, and low-carbon fields:

• Deep-earth exploration: Casing pipes were successfully applied in China’s first 10,000-meter scientific exploration well, meeting the strict requirements of ultra-deep well drilling.
• High-end product development: High-end products such as special threads, 13Cr steel tubes, and offshore pipelines achieved breakthroughs in the international market. New products like ultra-critical CO₂ transmission pipes, shale gas well anti-collapse casing, and 10,000-meter variable-wall-thickness coiled tubes were successfully developed.
• Large-scale products: The first large-diameter (Φ3000 mm × 30 mm) ultra-thick-walled spiral welded steel tube (strength grade Q355C, length 45 m, weight 90 tons) was rolled off the production line, filling the gap in domestic large-scale pipeline products.
• Technological innovation: The “permanent magnet servo motor direct drive technology” was first applied in the main drive of pipe rolling mills, reducing intermediate transmission components (such as reducers and oil stations). This technology improved transmission accuracy and reliability, reduced noise, and achieved an energy-saving rate of 20%, contributing to carbon emission reduction.

2.2 Quality Improvement and Standard Formulation (Revision)

Enterprises focused on quality control and actively participated in standardization work to enhance industry quality levels:

• Quality management: Enterprises strengthened quality control from key contracts, critical processes, key equipment, geometric dimension optimization, and quality objection reduction, effectively reducing quality risks in production.
• Standard participation: The industry participated in the formulation (revision) of 4 national standards and 2 group standards. Key standards such as Ultrasonic Testing Method for Seamless Steel Tube Ends (GB/T 44152-2024), Energy-Saving Technical Specification for Hot-Dip Galvanizing Thermal Systems of Steel Tubes (GB/T 44553-2024), and Green Product Evaluation – Steel Tubes were formulated or revised to standardize product quality and promote green development.
• Certifications: Enterprises obtained certifications such as “National Specialized, Refined, Peculiar, and Innovative Small Giant Enterprise,” “National Green Factory,” and “Green Design Product,” marking significant progress in quality and green development.

2.3 Green Development and Energy Conservation & Consumption Reduction

The industry actively promoted green transformation, increased environmental protection investment, and achieved remarkable results in energy conservation and carbon reduction:

• Environmental protection investment: Annual environmental protection investment of key enterprises increased by 18.02% YoY, focusing on environmental monitoring, process optimization, environmental protection equipment procurement, and “three wastes” (waste gas, wastewater, solid waste) management.
• Renewable energy utilization: Enterprises actively developed photovoltaic power generation, with annual photovoltaic power generation reaching 39.52 million kWh, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 19,286 tons.
• Green certifications: Products such as spiral welded steel tubes, plastic-lined composite steel tubes, and plastic-coated composite steel tubes obtained “EPD (Environmental Product Declaration)” and “Product Carbon Footprint” certifications.
• Emission control: 100% of waste gas emission points met standards. Key enterprises completed 25 ultra-low emission transformation projects and passed regional ecological environment Class A enterprise audits. Water recycling rate in production reached 100%, realizing zero discharge of production wastewater.

2.4 Digital and Intelligent Transformation

Enterprises accelerated the integration of digital technology and production operations, improving production efficiency and management levels:

• Top-level design: Enterprises formulated intelligent manufacturing top-level designs and overall plans, promoting the upgrading of production and sales systems and achieving breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) pilots.
• Intelligent applications: The industry’s first AI quality inspection model for weld X-rays was developed, and remote monitoring systems for downhole high-power electric heaters were independently developed. 10 intelligent transformation projects were implemented, and the first “provincial-level digital workshop” was built.
• System integration: Enterprises established order-driven full-process business management systems, integrating Product Data Management (PDM), Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), Manufacturing Execution System (MES), and Warehouse Management System (WMS) platforms to realize integrated management of sales, design, manufacturing, logistics, cost, and procurement.

2.5 New Projects and Technical Transformation

The industry actively promoted new project construction and technical transformation to expand high-end capacity and improve production efficiency:

• New production lines: A 127 mm three-roll continuous pipe rolling mill project for special steel tubes was put into operation, covering product specifications of Φ32.0~114.3 (140.0) mm × 3.5~12 (16) mm × 6~13 m. The project applied advanced technologies such as cloud computing, industrial internet, big data, and AI to realize centralized control and intelligent operation.
• Equipment upgrading: Two five-line cold drawing machines were commissioned, covering product specifications of Φ32~108 mm. A new stepping heating furnace and a 150-ton three-line drawing machine were added to improve on-site labor efficiency and production capacity.
• Future projects: Construction of new energy vehicle precision tube projects and new energy & semiconductor special material projects started, with expected completion and commissioning in 2025. A 508 mm Assel three-roll cross-rolling pipe mill project is scheduled to be put into operation in August 2025.

3.1 Output: Seamless Tubes Up Slightly, Welded Tubes Up Significantly

3.2 Import and Export: Exports Surge, Prices Continue to Fall

• Export volume: Total steel tube exports reached 277.35 million tons, up 15.58% YoY. Seamless steel tube exports rose by 14.96% YoY, and welded steel tube exports increased by 16.23% YoY.
• Export prices: The average export price of steel tubes was 1,025 USD/ton, down 9.69% YoY. Seamless steel tube export price dropped by 5.47% YoY to 1,230 USD/ton, while welded steel tube export price fell by 15.47% YoY to 810 USD/ton.
• Product-specific exports: For seamless steel tubes, line pipe exports surged by 25.73% YoY, boiler tube exports increased by 50.62% YoY, while oil well pipe exports decreased by 7.51% YoY. For welded steel tubes, line pipes, oil well pipes, square and rectangular pipes, and stainless steel pipes (D ≤406.4 mm) all saw export growth, with oil well pipe exports up 54.73% YoY.
• Imports: Total steel tube imports grew by 6.65% YoY to 5.39 million tons, with seamless steel tube imports down 16.62% and welded steel tube imports up 37.4%. Import prices dropped sharply: the average import price of steel tubes was 4,999 USD/ton (-29.34% YoY), with seamless steel tube import price at 8,245 USD/ton (-17.21% YoY) and welded steel tube import price at 2,396 USD/ton (-26.57% YoY). The import-export price gap narrowed further.

The significant growth in seamless steel tube exports in Q1 2025 was mainly driven by three factors: domestic price advantages (due to market price adjustments), strong overseas demand (especially in the Middle East and Southeast Asia), and forward-shifted export orders (due to uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies). It is expected that U.S. tariff policies will have limited impact on seamless steel tube exports, and exports will remain promising in 2025.

3.3 Price Trend: Continued Volatile Decline, Limited Benefit Improvement

Affected by weak downstream demand, steel tube prices have shown a volatile downward trend since late October 2024. In Q1 2025, although the industry environment improved slightly (driven by policy implementation and export growth), the long-term supply-demand imbalance led to continued price declines, and enterprise benefits are expected to see no significant improvement in the short term.

4.1 Severe Supply-Demand Imbalance

The contradiction of oversupply in the steel tube industry is prominent. Steel tube production capacity has continued to increase in recent years, with an overall capacity utilization rate of less than 70%. Fierce homogeneous competition has led to an imbalance between input and output, resulting in a huge waste of resources.

4.2 Persistently Low Profit Margin

According to industry statistics, the sales profit margin of major steel tube enterprises in China was 3.43% in 2023, and it was even lower in 2024. This is far lower than the international average of over 20% for the same industry. The low profit margin has restricted enterprises’ enthusiasm for R&D investment and technological innovation, hindering the high-quality and sustainable development of the industry.

4.3 Low Industry Concentration

Although the steel tube industry has made breakthroughs in mergers and acquisitions in recent years, and concentration has increased slightly, it is still much lower than that in Europe, the United States, Japan, and other countries/regions—especially in the seamless steel tube sector. Low concentration makes the industry lack discourse power in major downstream sectors, limiting its ability to guide market demand and pricing.

4.4 Severe Involution and Lack of Effective Self-Discipline Mechanism

In domestic and international market competition, low-price competition has become the main bargaining chip for winning bids. The industry has not established a long-term win-win and mutually beneficial ecosystem among enterprises, upstream suppliers, and downstream users. The lack of effective self-discipline mechanisms has exacerbated homogeneous competition and hindered the industry’s transformation to high-end value chains.